What a mess, what an utter disaster, and it looks like it going to get even worse, my father who was in a car accident when I was only a few weeks old once said, “it can only hit rock bottom, after that it gets better again”.
In essence I must say, can it get even more worse than that it is, well in a way there are matters that are moving in the right direction, but at the same time it is too early to say if it is a good thing or not.
I am being following as many others what is happening with Ukraine and Russias disaster of a war, one thing is very clear, it is a well planned a fully intentional attack with both a short term agenda that in a haste has been replaced by a longer plan.
At first I am sure the plan was to act and fully dominate Ukraine in a few days, but the resistance was far beyond what anyone expected, so plan B..C..D…E had to come into play, in other words a contingency plan had to be put into place.
If it would have been over in a few days, matters would not gotten out of hands as they are, and the world would not be prepared to react in they way they have before everything would have been over, now when it is obvious it can take quite a while before matters are settled, it is clear that the cost for everyone inwolved is going to be much higher than anyone could have foreseen.
Up until a few days ago I was curtain it would end with an negotiated peace or a cease fire between Russia and Ukraine, but now I am even more sure that Russia in not interested in a negotiated peace, they are only interested in total dominance of Ukraine before they are satisfied, why, because the have gotten away with total defeat of other former East states and the goal is to re establish the old Russin empire back to the borders of 1917.
That includes Finland too, och makes the matter of joining NATO even more important than ever for both Sweden and Finland.
As long as a nation is not part of NATO Russia can do as they like, because NATO will only go into direct conflict with Russia if article 5 is put into account, any other country can be overrun by Russia, the question is what are Sweden going to do about it?
Well, Sweden won’t stand much of an chans in open conflict with Russia , because Russia will not fight Sweden conventionally, Sweden will be forced to accept defeat by nuclear threats or with a strike to one of our major ports in the Baltic Sea, if Sweden decide to resist, it would only escalate the violence, as it has developed in Ukraine.
When you are dealing with a hostile regime as Russia, and if you look back over the last 100 years, it has been proven over and over again you can not trust the Russians to uphold any agreements what so ever, every treaty, ever written agreement has been broken by the Russinas, so for that reason, there is no point to negotiate.
Russia is already beyond the point of no return, there is no way back for Russia to be accepted as a trustworthy world nation and they have proven beyond any reason that they don’t care what anyone thinks about them, other than that you should be afraid of them and what they can do to you.
The only way back for Russia is that the people of Russia or the army of Russia decide to take matter into there own hands and change Russias future from within, the chances for that are slim, and no one expects it to happen, but in hindsight no one expected Russia to be beaten on the ground by the Ukrainians, so maybe a miracle can happen if we all pray hard enough.
Stay safe, and take care.
Bell Blomquist Consulting