Key Takeaways (For Busy Readers)
For those short on time, here are the essential takeaways from this article:

Trump is pushing for a quick end to the war, but history warns against rushing into a weak deal. The Minsk Accords (2014, 2015) allowed Russia to regroup and launch a full-scale invasion later. Any new agreement must avoid repeating that mistake.

The West must counter Russia’s demands with its own comprehensive set of conditions. Negotiations should not just be about Ukraine, but also about Moldova, Georgia, Belarus, Kaliningrad, cybersecurity, and frozen conflicts Russia has created.

Economic leverage is key. Russia is financially strained, and the West holds over $300 billion in frozen Russian assets. Any deal should use phased sanctions relief as leverage to ensure Russia abides by the agreement over time.

Ukraine’s military self-sufficiency must be part of the deal. Instead of long-term Western aid, Ukraine should be equipped to defend itself, with local weapons production and advanced deterrence capabilities. A strong Ukraine reduces future U.S. and European defense commitments.

Automatic penalties must be built into the agreement. If Russia violates the deal:

• Sanctions must snap back automatically.
• Ukraine should instantly receive pre-approved military aid.
• Russian assets abroad should be seized.

The longer the negotiation process, the better for Ukraine and the West. A broad, multi-issue negotiation keeps Russia locked in diplomatic gridlock while Ukraine continues to receive military support and strengthen its position.

“A weak deal will invite the next war. A strong deal—built on deterrence, enforcement, and strategic patience—will define the next century.”

Trump’s Push for Peace Talks: The High-Stakes Diplomatic Challenge

In a significant development, U.S. President Donald Trump has made it clear that he intends to bring the Ukraine war to an end, stating that he believes a peace agreement is within reach. After a lengthy and highly productive phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump announced that both leaders had agreed to initiate immediate negotiations. Trump also held direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, discussing pathways to peace and Ukraine’s security concerns.

While Trump’s strong push for ending the war quickly has been met with optimism by some, others—including European leaders—are wary of a deal that could leave Ukraine vulnerable to future Russian aggression. As negotiations begin to take shape, it is critical that the West does not allow Russia to dictate the terms of a settlement. Instead, a comprehensive and multi-layered negotiation strategy must be put forward—one that ensures Ukraine’s long-term security and addresses the broader implications of Russian aggression across Europe.

If Russia is making demands, then so should the West.

The Risk of a Quick Deal

The Need for Strategic Patience

History has shown that Russia uses peace deals as a tactical pause to rebuild and strike again. The Minsk Accords (2014, 2015) did not prevent war; they merely delayed the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

If the West rushes into a weak deal, it will only set the stage for future conflict. Instead, a well-structured agreement must be:
Enforceable, with clear consequences for violations.
Comprehensive, covering all security concerns—not just Ukraine.
Backed by automatic deterrence mechanisms that prevent Russia from regrouping.

If Trump wants a deal that history will remember as a lasting peace, then it must include clear deterrence mechanisms to prevent Russia from using negotiations as a smokescreen for its next military buildup.

A Negotiation Process That Covers All Unfinished Business

To ensure that any peace deal is not just a temporary ceasefire that benefits Russia, the West must present its own long list of critical issues that must be addressed as part of the process.

1. If Ukraine’s Borders Are Up for Discussion, So Are Moldova’s and Georgia’s

• Russia must commit to a full military withdrawal from Transnistria, ending its illegal occupation of Moldovan territory.
• The status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia must be addressed, with a clear timeline for Russia’s exit from Georgian land.
• If Ukraine’s NATO ambitions are on the table, then so are security guarantees for Moldova and Georgia.

2. If NATO Is an Issue, Then Russia’s Military Presence in Belarus Must Be Addressed

• If Russia wants to limit Western military deployments, then it must also agree to reduce its own forces in Belarus.
• Belarus must be prohibited from serving as a launchpad for future Russian offensives, with international verification mechanisms in place.

3. If Russia Wants a Say in Ukraine’s Security Policy, Then It Must Accept Western Oversight in Kaliningrad

• The militarization of Kaliningrad must be part of the negotiation, including potential arms limitations and transparency agreements.
• If Russia expects the West to limit NATO deployments in Eastern Europe, then it must agree to similar constraints in its heavily armed exclave.

4. If Russia Wants an End to Sanctions, Then It Must Pay for the Damage It Has Caused

• Instead of a simple lifting of sanctions, Russia must commit to a long-term compensation mechanism for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
• This could include a 99-year natural resource transfer agreement, ensuring that Ukraine receives Russian energy and raw materials at reduced rates.
• If Russia defaults on payments, then Western sanctions would automatically snap back into place.

5. Automatic Consequences for Treaty Violations

• Clear deterrence: If Russia violates any part of the agreement, there should be pre-approved consequences that trigger without further negotiation or political delay.
• What “automatic penalties” look like:
  Instant reactivation of full Western sanctions—no waiting for approvals.
  Accelerated military aid to Ukraine, including long-range missile systems and advanced air defenses.
  Seizure of Russian financial assets—ensuring that any violation has immediate, irreversible costs.

Conclusion: If Trump Wants to End the War, It Must Be Done Right

President Trump’s insistence on ending the war quickly makes it even more critical that the West does not rush into a weak deal. If Ukraine is forced into a settlement that only benefits Russia, then the cycle of aggression will continue, and another war will be inevitable.

By broadening the negotiations, the West achieves two goals:
1️ Forces Russia to commit to a long-term peace process that eliminates all opportunities for future aggression.
2️ Delays any settlement until Ukraine is strong enough to dictate its own terms.

“A weak deal will invite the next war. A strong deal—built on deterrence, enforcement, and strategic patience—will define the next century.

Christopher Bell
Blomquist Consulting
Managing Director

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